How we estimate software projects (and why estimates are always wrong)

Software estimation is one of the trickiest parts of our job. Clients want certainty; developers want to be honest; and projects—well, they tend to go their own way.

At Artika Labs, we’ve learned that estimating software projects is as much an art as a science. Here’s how we approach it, what usually goes wrong, and how to navigate the uncertainty.

Why are estimates so hard?

• Unclear requirements: Most projects start with a great idea, but details are fuzzy.
• Unknown unknowns: Surprises always show up—whether it’s a third-party API that changes, or a technical roadblock.
• Changing priorities: Stakeholders discover new needs or shift focus as the project evolves.
• Human optimism: Everyone (including us!) tends to underestimate complexity and overestimate speed.

Our approach to estimation

1. Breaking down the problem

We split the project into small, concrete tasks.
The more granular, the more accurate the estimate.

2. Discussing with the whole team

We involve both devs and stakeholders.
Different perspectives help spot risks and hidden complexity.

3. Using historical data

We look at previous projects for reference—what took longer, what was easier, and why.

4. Buffering for the unexpected

We always add contingency time (sometimes called “padding”) for surprises. It’s not about “wasting time”—it’s being realistic.

5. Iterative estimates

We re-estimate as the project progresses and as we learn more. Estimates aren’t set in stone.

Why estimates go wrong (even when you do everything right)

• Requirements change mid-project.
• Technical challenges are more complex than anticipated.
• Integrations (APIs, third parties) behave differently in practice.
• Team members get sick, or priorities change.

It’s normal. The important thing is to communicate early and often.

How we handle deviations

1. Transparent communication
   We keep clients updated as soon as we notice deviations.

2. Prioritization together
   If time or budget runs short, we help the client decide what’s most important to deliver.

3. Retrospectives
   We review what worked, what didn’t, and improve our estimation process for next time.

Our philosophy

Estimation isn’t about predicting the future perfectly—it’s about making the best possible plan with the info you have, and being ready to adapt.

At Artika Labs, we believe in honesty, flexibility, and working closely with our clients to turn surprises into learning opportunities.

Conclusion

If you’ve ever been frustrated by missed deadlines or shifting estimates, you’re not alone.
The key isn’t to eliminate uncertainty—it’s to manage it well, together.